Photo : Snorri Thor/NurPhoto/picture alliance
15 January 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #730
Europe in Brief
By Meenakshi R, Alka Bala and Rosemary Kurian
DENMARK
Frederik X crowned as the new king of Denmark
On 15 January, after 52 years as Denmark’s queen, Queen Margrethe II stepped down to King Frederik X, was crowned marking the start of a new era for the Danish monarchy. Frederik X, well-known for his laid-back personality and widespread popularity offers a contemporary touch while respecting his mother's legacy. ("Denmark: New King Frederik X takes throne from Margarethe II," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)
FRANCE
Attal brings hopes to re-energise the government
On 13 January, the BBC reported on the hopes of French citizens on Gabriel Attal youngest French Prime Minister to revive Macron’s government and help restart his second term mandate. Perceived by positive public opinion as youthful, dynamic and full of ideas, Attal’s ability to deal with the right-wing will help the moderate government push reforms in the parliament, since Emmanuel Macron, France’s President doesn't hold a majority in the National Assembly. Macron’s Renaissance Party believes that Attal can help counter the increasing right-wing wave present in Europe and reduce the influence of far-right parties like the National Rally. However, the National Rally does not view Attal as a threat and awaits the European Parliament election results to test his influence. (Andrew Harding, “Gabriel Attal: Youngest French PM hopes to revive Macron's government,” BBC, 13 January 2024)
Draft ‘Energy Sovereignty” law draws flak; sceptics on emphasis on nuclear power
On 12 January, Euractiv reported on the arguments initiated by the draft ‘Energy Sovereignty’ law, presented on 08 January by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, French Energy Transition Minister. The law highlights France’s energy concerns and priorities for 2030, however, fails to provide quantified targets for renewable energy contradicting the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive which requires bringing the blocs’ final consumption to 42.5 per cent collective share of renewables. Ministry emphasised maintaining the installed capacity of the energy programme at 63GW, generated majorly through nuclear and hydroelectric power, meanwhile renewable energies will help in completing the “last mile”, as a simple backup to nuclear power. Pannier-Runacher stated a reduction in the share of nuclear power, as old reactors would be shut down complemented with an increase in electricity production to decarbonise the economy. The law will be debated in the National Assembly in late January or early February. (Paul Messad, “France’s ‘last mile’ strategy for renewables under fire from all sides,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024)
GERMANY
Citizens’ Council gives nine recommendations on healthier society
On 15 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the newly formed Citizens’ Council’s suggestions to improve public health in Germany, which were presented to Bärbel Bas, the President of the German Parliament Bundestag, on the theme of “Nutrition in Transition.” The key suggestion in a list of nine recommendations was free lunches to every student in German schools, the cost of which must be split between the state and local governments. The Council also suggested the labelling of food to inform consumers of their food choices, new food tax measures with 0 per cent sales tax on organic and about 19 per cent for sale of sugar and non-organic products. The Civil Council was made because of Germany’s attempt to increase civic dialogue in the democracy, choosing 160 citizens at random to come up with key democratic decisions. Bas has considered the suggestions and is due to present it to the Bundestag in late February as a report. (“Germany: Citizens' group backs national free-lunch program”, Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)
Hundreds rally against right-wing extremism; Scholz, Baerbock attend
On 14 January, Deutsche Welle reported on rallies taking place across Germany against right-wing extremism, including major events taking place in Berlin and Potsdam. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor and Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Foreign Minister, joined the protests, extending their support for the motto “defend democracy.” The rallies erupted after Correctiv, an investigative journalism portal, released an expose on a secret meeting between far-right extremists including Martin Sellner, an Austrian neo-Nazi, and members of the party Alternative for Germany (AfG) in Potsdam, discussing remigration and forced deportation. Elections in Germany are yet to prove the rising popularity of the AfD, a eurosceptic, islamophobic and anti-immigration-based political party, which has gained key support from Eastern Germany especially in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. The EU elections this year will enable the party to show its strength, if any. (“Germany: Scholz, Baerbock attend 'defend democracy' rally,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2024)
2024 emerges as the year of protests of discontent
On 14 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the multiple protests that had taken over Germany, especially by farmers and train drivers’ unions, due to sudden changes in EU legislation with little time to adapt. Farmers in Germany started protesting due to subsidy cuts to adapt to a new carbon neutral policy, which has brought traffic to a standstill. Protesting unions have been supported by far-right political parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfG) feeding on populism. Farmers supported by right-wing extremist parties attacked a ferry that transported Robert Habeck, the German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister, a trend similar to protests targeting residences of officials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Support for parties in the fringes has been increasing due to the sudden phasing out of fossil fuels, tax increases, subsidy cuts and political disagreements in the coalition government, which could have significant outcomes in 2024. (Sabine Kinkartz, “Why Germany has gone into protest mode,” Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2024)
German authorities seek deportation of suspect of Cologne Cathedral attack
On 15 January, a 25-year-old Tajik national was being actively pursued by German authorities for removal after allegedly plotting a terror assault on Cologne Cathedral on new year's eve. The Dortmund District Court issued a removal warrant after the suspect and three other people were taken into custody on 31 December and then released. Notably, an Austrian arrest warrant is still pending for a 30-year-old Tajik suspect who was detained in Wesel and is currently being held in German custody. It was observed that the 25-year-old was connected to people who were detained in Vienna, indicating that he may be part of a small terror cell. Targeting crowds outside Cologne's cathedral with a car was the intended attack. The suspects were said to be part of the "Islamic State Khorasan" group (IS-K), which operates in central and south Asia. ("Germany seeks Cologne Cathedral attack suspect's deportation," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)
HUNGARY
Chief economist expects GDP to exceed four per cent
On 11 January, Hungary Today reported the government’s commitment to exceed economic growth beyond four per cent in 2024, focusing on pillars of growth in a balanced manner. A solid increase in working capital and major investments seen in the establishment of car factors and battery plants will facilitate in momentum of investments and GDP. Gergely Suppan, Chief Economist at the Ministry of National Economy, highlighted the possible setbacks due to external price shocks, however, the current deflationary nature of commodity and energy prices depicts a positive future for the economy. Subsidised loan initiative programs such as the Széchenyi Recreation Card and the Baross Gábor Re-industrialization Loan Program will help in strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises and will increase domestic investment. (“Government to Focus On Fortifying the Pillars of Economic Growth,” Hungary Today, 11 January 2024)
Teachers' to receive pay rise after arrival of the EU funds
On 15 January, Hungary Today reported on impact on teachers after the crucial release of EUR 10 billion financial release from the EU. This guaranteed their long-awaited pay rise of 32.2 per cent. After initially connecting pay increases to EU subsidies, the government finally gave assurances about its commitment, announcing a two-phase rise to achieve 80 per cent of the average graduate income, with a 21 cent increase for 2024 and a 71.8 per cent increase by 2025. ("With Guarantees Received for the Arrival of EU Funds, Teachers’ Pay Rise May Commence," Hungary Today, 15 January 2024)
ICELAND
Volcano Erupts for second time forcing evacuation
On 14 January, the volcano in southwest Iceland erupted for the second time in less than a month, shooting lava into a fishing hamlet and lighting up the skies over the region. Just recently, in late December 2023, 3,800 inhabitants of Grindavik returned to their homes following forced evacuation due to a previous eruption. Although no lives were at risk this time, some infrastructure are at risk of damage. Since this eruption does not produce a lot of ash into the atmosphere, it is not anticipated to cause any problems for air traffic. On the Reykjanes Peninsula, a volcano has erupted five times since 2021 and this time the protective barriers meant to shield Grindavik from the lava have been breached. ("Iceland: Reykjanes volcano erupts for 2nd time in weeks," Deutsche Welle, 15 January 2024)
RUSSIA
Putin says Asia to be Russia’s far east key
On 15 January, Sputnik reported on Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President address on the Far East. He called it as a "golden gateway" to Asia, emphasising its importance in securing Russia's future and forming alliances with rapidly expanding Asian economies. He referred to the area as the "Arctic's sibling" in determining Russia's future, highlighting its size, wealth of resources, and logistical ability. Putin promised further development work, emphasising not only the extraction of resources but also technology cooperation and deeper commercial connections with Asian countries. ("Putin: Russia's Far East Region Important for Development of Nation's Ties With Asia," Sputnik, 15 January 2024)
THE UK
Five migrants reported dead while crossing the English Channel
On 13 January, the BBC reported the arrival of the first batch of migrants picked up by the Border Force vessel in Dover, Kent County indicating a small boat crossing after the longest gap of 26 days seen in the past five years. The UK Home Office spokesperson stated their commitment to intercept vessels and crackdown on dangerous crossings, which although reduced crossings by 36 per cent last year, 2023 remained with the second highest year recording 29,437 crossings. On 14 January, Stars and Stripes reported the death of five Syrian migrants who suffered from the winter temperatures while crossing the English Channel from northern France. French rescue services assisted 30 migrants travelling in a capsized boat, and recovering them from freezing waters. Authorities have reported to increase in coastal surveillance as weather conditions in the channel have improved after the winter, increasing the chances of crossings. (Rosie Blunt, “First migrants of 2024 cross English Channel,” BBC, 13 January 2024; “5 migrants killed in another tragedy on perilous sea crossing from France to Britain,” Stars and Stripes, 14 January 2024)
REGIONAL
Talks over naval operations in Red Sea to re-establish security
On 12 January, Euractiv reported a scheduled discussion in the Political and Security Committee to take place on 16 January regarding a potential joint naval operation proposal by EU’s diplomatic service EEAS. The EU proposal aims to act from the “Red Sea to the Gulf,” while also struggling to balance deterrence and further escalation in the Middle East. Recognising the urgency that rerouting of ships from the Rea Sea would disrupt global supply chains, EU diplomats would at the earliest finalise plans by 22 January, and launch operation by February, either by joining the Operation Prosperity Guardian with the US-led coalition or join the French-led joint surveillance mission Agenor operation which covers the entire Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, parts of Arabian Sea, and is conducted under the broader framework of European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz. (Alexandra Brzozowski, “EU mulls potential joint naval mission in Red Sea amid Houthi attacks,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024)
EU waste export ban threatens collapse of recycling industry
On 12 January, Euractiv reported on the threats facing the European recycling market following the EU’s announcement of a ban on the export of plastic waste both inside and outside of Europe. The Belgium-based industrial packaging recycling organisation Valipac has warned that without export of waste for recycling, EU countries will be forced to stock waste only to be burned eventually, due to lack of demand for recyclable plastics in the region. The key issue is insufficient capacity within Europe to recycle the stockpiled waste. Of the 100,000 tonnes of waste in the form of plastic collected in Belgium alone, 24,000 tonnes are exported outside the region. The EU prefers creating packaging from virgin plastic over use of recycled plastic and unless capacity to recycle isn’t increased, the EU recycling industry faces significant risk of collapse. (Frédéric Simon, “Recycling market in Europe faces ‘collapse’ after EU waste export ban,” Euractiv, 12 January 2024)
INTERNATIONAL
US strikes in Yemen leave Spain, Italy and France concerned
On 13 January, Euractiv reported on the second American strike against Houthi rebels in Yemen soon after the success of a joint US-UK strike against Houthi targets inside Yemen. The second attack targeted a radar site, in an attempt to weaken their ability to target commercial vessels in the Red Sea, according to the US Central Command. The initial attacks targeted military airports near Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, a naval base near its Red Sea port and several military sites. The Houthis responded with a warning for revenge for the act of “terrorism” against them. The Red Sea attacks were a spillover of Israel’s war on Gaza, also causing soaring oil prices, and tensions mounted over whether the new strikes against Houthis would lead to regional escalation. Several European countries like the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark actively supported the allied strike in Yemen, while Italy, France and Spain remain on the fence over potential escalation of regional conflict in the Middle East. (“US strikes Yemen again while Italy, Spain, France sit on the fence,” Euractiv, 13 January 2024)